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    • Join the Chamber
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  • About Us
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    • Our Programs >
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      • Candidate Academy
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      • Pierce County Business Accelerator
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2026 Pierce County Economic Outlook Highlights Warning Signs

1/28/2026

 
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​FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact Information:
Tacoma-Pierce County Chamber
Mary Sedano, Senior Marketing & Communications Manager
[email protected]
PIERCE COUNTY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR 2026 HIGHLIGHTS WARNING SIGNS FOR PIERCE COUNTY ECONOMY AMID NATIONAL UNCERTAINTY

​2026 Pierce County Economic Index points to stagnant growth, concerning leading indicators, and significant policy headwinds.
TACOMA, Wash. — January 28, 2025 — The Tacoma-Pierce County Chamber (TPCC) released the 2026 Pierce County Economic Index (PCEI) Report, a comprehensive analysis detailing emerging economic challenges for the region. The report was authored by a team of economists from the University of Puget Sound, led by department chair Andrew Monaco and supported by professors Lea Fortmann, Lisa Nunn, and Garrett Milam. The analysis identifies stagnant or declining activity across multiple key sectors and underscores how federal policy uncertainty is impacting local businesses and households.

“The 2026 PCEI tells a story of an economy at a crossroads,” said Tom Pierson, interim President & CEO of the Tacoma‑Pierce County Chamber. “While our diverse economic base provides resilience, the data shows clear warning signs. From construction to port traffic, leading indicators are softening. Still, the overall U.S. economy closed 2025 on a stronger note, with growth exceeding expectations. Looking ahead, the outlook remains optimistic, provided key risks such as tariff adjustments, additional taxation on businesses, and geopolitical tensions are effectively managed. Overall, the resilience demonstrated last year positions the economy for continued progress in 2026.”

Uncertain and evolving federal policy appears to be the primary driver of uncertainty for Pierce County businesses. An extended government shutdown obstructed the flow of critical data, delaying key metrics like county-level GDP and personal income, which are not expected to be available until February 2026. Unfortunately, this gap in information hampers informed decision-making for local leaders.
​
Additionally, volatile tariff policies have created an unpredictable environment for trade-dependent industries, directly impacting key cargo volumes at the Port of Tacoma. These issues are intensified by political pressure on the Federal Reserve, risking its traditional independence in setting monetary policy. This comes as local inflation, at 2.7%, remains higher than the national average, and mortgage rates stay elevated above 6%.
​
Spotlight on Key Industries:
  • Construction & Real Estate: Building permits in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area are down 17.3% year-over-year, and Pierce County construction materials sales have fallen 7.3%. In commercial real estate, a construction boom has led to a surge in industrial warehouse capacity, pushing the vacancy rate up to 10.6% and creating downward pressure on rents.
  • Trade, Logistics & The Port: At the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA), which consists of the Ports of Tacoma and Seattle, the 2025 estimate is a 2.9% reduction in total container traffic, with steeper drops in automobiles (-21.8%) and breakbulk cargo (-18.1%). This shows the direct effects of unstable international trade policies and reduced trade with China.
  • Retail & Consumer Activity: Pierce County taxable retail sales remained flat into 2025, following a predictable but subdued seasonal pattern. This reflects cautious consumer behavior as households contend with a local inflation rate that continues to outpace the national average.
  • Labor Market & Key Employment Sectors: The overall labor market is tightening. Pierce County employment fell 1% year-over-year, and Washington State's labor force participation rate hit a 10-year low of 61.7%. Economic growth is forecast to slow to 0.7% in 2026, with sectors like Education and Health Services expecting declines after previous gains.
  • Household Economics & Cost of Living: Residents and businesses face persistent cost pressures. The Pierce County Housing Affordability Index remains below its balanced benchmark of 100, highlighting the challenges facing an average household's ability to afford an average mortgage payment. Apartment rents continue to climb, and local inflation is elevated, squeezing real income gains and business operating costs.

​The report notes, however, that these warning signs appear against a backdrop of underlying strength. The high cost of living in the region is itself indicative of its high desirability as a place to live and work. Pierce County’s appealing urban and natural environment, combined with stable economic opportunity, continues to attract both labor and entrepreneurial talent, reinforcing the strong foundation upon which the local economy is built.
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The Tacoma-Pierce County Chamber invites community members, stakeholders, and business leaders to explore the full 2026 Pierce County Economic Index Report, available on the Chamber’s website.
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About the Tacoma-Pierce County Chamber
​

The Tacoma-Pierce County Chamber drives economic vitality, community prosperity, and quality of life in the South Sound. Founded in 1884, the Chamber fosters a thriving business environment for organizations of all sizes. Through advocacy, partnerships, and resources, it connects members to growth opportunities and offers services that empower success and sustainable development. Committed to innovation and inclusivity, the “Member Powered” Chamber champions policies that make Tacoma-Pierce County the most equitable, inclusive, and thriving place to do business. For more information, visit the Chamber’s website.
 
About Puget Sound

A nationally ranked residential liberal arts college in Tacoma, Washington, University of Puget Sound enrolls 1,600 undergraduate students from across the country and around the world, as well as 250 graduate students in education, counseling, occupational therapy, physical therapy, and public health. A low student-faculty ratio provides Puget Sound students with personal attention from faculty members who have a strong commitment to teaching and offer 1,200 courses each year in more than 50 areas of study. Puget Sound graduates include Rhodes and Luce scholars, notables in the arts and culture, scholars and scientists, entrepreneurs and elected officials, and leaders in business and finance locally and throughout the world. A top producer of Fulbright scholars, Puget Sound is the only nationally ranked independent liberal arts college in Western Washington, and one of just five independent colleges in the Northwest granted a charter by Phi Beta Kappa, the nation’s most prestigious academic honor society. As part of its commitment to expanding access to higher education, Puget Sound offers the first accredited bachelor’s degree program in a prison in Washington state.
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